GBP/AUD down ~3.1% over three weeks
Resistance holds, eyes on UK CPI & Aussie jobs
GBP/AUD: What’s happening now
GBP/AUD has dropped roughly 3.1% over the past three weeks. The pair has been rejected multiple times near 2.10, forming a resistance zone, and recently slipped through an ascending trendline toward the 200-day moving average support.
Pressure is mounting as market participants await major UK inflation data and the Bank of England decision. On the Australia side, the upcoming labour force figures and China activity remain key wildcards.
Key UK Data & Risks
Data Point | Status | What To Watch |
|---|---|---|
CPI (August) | Due 17 September | Will it run hotter than expectations? If so, pressure for BoE to hold rates higher or maintain hawkish stance. |
Bank of England MPC Decision | 18 September | Language and guidance on future rate outlook and QT (quantitative tightening) will be under scrutiny. |
Retail Sales (August) | 19 September | Consumer strength or weakness can shift expectations for growth and rate policy. |
Australia & External Factors
Labour Force (August) expected 18 September: unemployment, participation, and employment change are all things to watch.
China & commodity influence: Iron ore prices and Chinese demand remain drag on AUD if they deteriorate, or boost if they stabilise.
Global risk tone: Shifts in risk sentiment can favour AUD when risk is on; GBP often benefits in defensive or uncertain environments.
Technical Levels
Resistance: ~2.10 zone (multiple rejections)
Support: Rising trend line recently broken, next major technical support near the 200-day MA and sub-2.02 swing lows.
Key reversal triggers: Reclaiming 2.06-2.08 could signal short-term recovery toward 2.10; falling more deeply below 200-day opens risk toward lower 1.98-2.02 region.
What this means for players
If you are contracted in AUD but paid in GBP (or vice versa), movements like this can eat into your take-home unless you have forward contracts or have hedged part of the exposure.
Timing matters: If you have bonuses, transfer installments, or property payments scheduled soon, it helps to know whether major UK or Australian data tends to shift the cross.
Knowing the resistance and support levels gives you reference points—not to “trade” but to plan expectations and what to watch for.
The Week Ahead (UK / AU)
Date | Event (UK) | Event (Australia) |
|---|---|---|
17 Sept | UK CPI (August) | — |
18 Sept | BoE Decision | Australia Labour Force (August) |
19 Sept | UK Retail Sales (August) | — |
Where to next? 2.10 or 2.00?
After slipping 3.1% in three weeks, GBP/AUD sits in the middle of its recent range. The next major move will likely depend on the UK’s inflation and central bank outlook versus Australia’s labour data and global risk appetite.
Upside case: If UK CPI comes in hot, the Bank of England holds a firm line, and Aussie jobs data disappoint, GBP/AUD could rebound and retest the 2.08–2.10 resistance zone.
Downside case: If UK data softens, the BoE strikes a cautious tone, and Australia delivers strong jobs alongside a steadier China backdrop, the pair could continue sliding toward the 2.00 region.
Right now, momentum is pointing lower, but these upcoming data points will decide whether this is just a correction or the start of a deeper reversal.
Final Word
The next few days will be pivotal for GBP/AUD — with resistance at 2.10 and support near 2.00 now in sight. Whether this pullback is a pause or the start of something larger will depend on the data.
Stay informed. Stay prepared.
If you have upcoming payments, bonuses, or transfers linked to GBP or AUD, now is the time to review your exposure.
Book a call with SportsFX to map out your upcoming transfers and see how currency moves could impact your real earnings.
